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When Arthur Hayes speaks, the crypto world usually stops and listens—not because he’s always right, but because he understands the plumbing of the market better than almost anyone. His latest essay, $HYPE Man, just dropped, and he has set massive sights on Hyperliquid.
Arthur calls $HYPE to $150 by August 2026—a 5x from ~$30-36 levels today.
Don’t get me wrong. Arthur Hayes isn’t always right. But let’s go into more details on why he is so bullish on HYPE.
If you’ve been following my writing, you know I value assets with real revenue and a clear utility. Hyperliquid is checking those boxes in a big way right now.
The Hayes Thesis - Why $150 HYPE?
Arthur is calling for a $150 price target for the HYPE token by August 2026. That’s a 5x move from where we are today. Here is the breakdown of why he’s so bullish:
The Buyback Machine - Unlike most governance tokens that just sit there, Hyperliquid funnels 97% of its protocol revenue into buying back HYPE from the open market. It’s a literal vacuum for the circulating supply.
The Rotation to DEX - He sees a massive shift coming where traders abandon centralized exchanges (CEX) for decentralized perpetuals (DEX). If Hyperliquid captures just 4% more of that market share, its revenue hits a billion-dollar run rate.
Trading More Than Crypto - Through the HIP-3 protocol, people are now trading oil, gold, and the Nasdaq 100 on-chain. In fact, this week, crude oil (CL-USDC) actually flipped Ethereum in 24-hour trading volume on the platform.
In his recent Substack article, Arthur said:
Hyperliquid, the dominant perp DEX, is the largest revenue-generating project that isn’t a stablecoin. 97% of this revenue is used to buy back $HYPE tokens from the market. No other project in all of crypto hands as much money back to token holders as Hyperliquid.
My Take as an Investor
I’ve spent 29 years looking at market cycles. What I like here isn’t the flashy $150 prediction; it’s the P/E ratio.
HYPE is currently trading at about 12x earnings. Compare that to Coinbase at 40x or the CME Group at 26x. In a sideways or fearful market, the house (the exchange) always wins because it collects fees regardless of which way the price goes.
Hayes is betting that Hyperliquid becomes the GMX of 2026—the darling of a choppy market. With the HIP-4 prediction markets launching soon, the platform is moving into territory that even the big centralized players haven't fully mastered.
Bottom Line
Whether HYPE hits $150 or only doubles, the underlying economics of a 97% revenue buyback are hard to ignore. Watch the $35 resistance level. If it breaks, we could see $50 faster than the bears expect.
As always, do your own research to see if this trade makes sense for you.
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This article is for informational purposes only. It should not be considered Financial or Legal Advice. Not all information will be accurate. Consult a financial professional before making any significant financial decisions.
