If you’ve been trading crypto for more than five minutes, you know the drill. The Bitcoin halving cycle arrives, and you wait a year…
Boom—bull market, crash, and repeat the cycle.
It was a rhythm you could count on like your crypto investment clock.
However, according to Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX and one of crypto’s most influential thinkers, that predictable, four-year cycle is officially history.
In his latest post, Hayes delivers the harsh reality - the old pattern is "gone forever." He argues that traders who rely on the cycle don’t understand its true historical catalyst—and they’re missing why it will fail now.
Hayes Declares 'Long Live the King' of Liquidity
Hayes’ central thesis, detailed in his blog post, is simple - the past three bull runs weren't driven by the Bitcoin halving. They were driven by global liquidity—the cheap and plentiful flow of global money.
He wrote:
“There have been three cycles where the all-time high occurred every four years... Traders apply this rule without understanding why it worked in the past. And without this historical understanding, they miss why it will fail this time.”
Bitcoin 4-year cycle image from Reddit
Hayes wrote that every major rally started when money was cheap, and every crash came when credit tightened. Today's market runs on politics and central bank policy, not just block rewards. As global monetary shifts take center stage, Bitcoin’s path is now shaped by central banks, not mathematical supply schedules. This perspective, signaling the cycle's death, was reported by TradingView News.
The Consensus - Institutional Money Trumps Halvings
Hayes isn't the only major player waving goodbye to the four-year cycle. A growing chorus of analysts and firms agree that institutional money and macroeconomics have fundamentally rewritten Bitcoin’s rulebook.
K33 Research is equally bullish on the new paradigm. Head of Research Vetle Lunde coined a similar phrase to Hayes's blog post in K33's own outlook:
“The 4-year cycle is dead, long live the king.”
K33 argues that the rise of institutional adoption and favorable policy shifts has rendered the old halving cycle obsolete, implying Bitcoin has entered a new regime dictated by structural forces.
Meanwhile, the data side is seeing similar evidence. Ki Young Ju, CEO of analytics platform CryptoQuant, declared the "Bitcoin cycle theory is dead."
Ju noted a significant shift in whale behavior. He observed that in past cycles, large holders sold to retail investors near the peak. This time, however, "old whales sell to new long-term whales," signaling that institutional adoption is much bigger than previously thought.
Additionally, Pierre Rochard, CEO of The Bitcoin Bond Company, agreed that the cycle is finished, stating that halvings are now “immaterial to trading float,” since 95% of Bitcoin has already been mined. Rochard believes the supply shock is irrelevant today because the supply side is no longer the main story.
The message is clear. The market is maturing, and the factors that once provided a clear, four-year trading window are fading. Investors who are still fixated on a predictable cycle based solely on the halving are looking backward, not forward.
This article is for informational purposes only. It should not be considered Financial or Legal Advice. Not all information will be accurate. Consult a financial professional before making any significant financial decisions.
