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The fourth week of January 2026 proved that in crypto, the only thing more volatile than the price is geopolitics. After the institutional euphoria of mid-January, the market hit a wall of risk-off sentiment, triggered not by a hack or a rug pull, but by a sudden chill in transatlantic relations and renewed trade war fears.
The window from January 19 to January 25 saw Bitcoin struggle to maintain its grip on the $90,000 handle as the Greenland Tariff shock sent ripples through global markets. But it didn’t last long as President Trump pulled back on his intent to place tariffs on European countries that were against the US gaining Greenland.
Market Update
The total crypto market cap took a breather this week, retracting to approximately $2.9 to $3.0 trillion after the mid-month peak. The aggressive accumulation we saw earlier in the month has shifted to a cautious distribution phase.
Bitcoin Price Action — BTC faced a sharp rejection after testing the $90,000 resistance. By January 25, the price had slid toward $86,500, primarily driven by macroeconomic jitters. The liquidations were heavy, with over $860 million in BTC longs wiped out in a single 24-hour window following threats of new U.S. tariffs on European imports.
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Bitcoin Dominance
Bitcoin Dominance chart from CoinMarketCap
Bitcoin’s grip loosened slightly this week as the market-wide sell-off hit the king harder than some resilient mid-caps. We are seeing a tug-of-war: institutional sticky money is holding the floor, while short-term speculators are fleeing to the sidelines.
Fear & Greed
Index Score — 26/100 (Fear)
Fear and Greed Index from Bitdegree
What a difference a week makes. We’ve plummeted from the Neutral zone (44) back into Fear. This 18-point drop reflects the sudden risk-off pivot. Historically, these are the moments where the smart money starts looking for entries, but for the average retail trader, the Greenland shock has left a bitter taste.
US & Global Crypto Moves
The narrative has shifted from Regulatory Clarity to Macro Conflict:
The Greenland Shock — President Trump’s threat of a 10% tariff on eight European nations (as leverage for a Greenland purchase) triggered a massive flight to safety. Ironically, while BTC is digital gold, it behaved more like a tech stock this week, decoupling from actual gold which rallied.
Russia’s Retail Opening — On January 15, Russian lawmakers finalized a bill to grant retail citizens access to crypto with a limit of 300,000 rubles (~$3,800). This is a massive shift, signaling that Russia is officially integrating digital assets into its everyday financial fabric to bypass sanctions.
Senate Ag Committee Update — The Senate Agriculture Committee released its version of the Crypto Market Structure legislation on January 22. While the industry is cheering the progress, the "anti-privacy" amendments remain a sticking point for decentralized advocates.
Voices from the Trenches
Matt Hougan (@MattHougan) - The Bitwise CIO argued this week that the "four-year cycle is dead.” In his latest note, Hougan emphasized that 2026 will be an up year because the halving's influence is diminishing while institutional access via ETFs has created a sustained, steady boom. He noted that for the first time, Bitcoin's volatility in 2025 was lower than Nvidia's (NVDA), signaling a fundamental derisking of the asset.
Cointelegraph/CoinDesk: Highlighting that Asian liquidity is now holding up the market during U.S. off-hours. While the U.S. is selling off on tariff news, Eastern markets are absorbing the dip, creating a 24/7 battle for price discovery.
Top Crypto Gains and Losses
The leaderboard this week shows a clear flight toward Bitcoin Layer 2s and established stablecoin ecosystems.
Top Crypto Gains from CoinGecko
River (RIVER) - Defied the market downturn with explosive gains, hitting new ATHs around $82–$87. A 166.9% surge on January 23 was fueled by a massive short squeeze (whale accumulations liquidated shorts).
ENSO (ENSO) - Prices surged 118% due to liquidity returns and tight supply before falling at the end of the week.
Bitlayer (BTR) - Gained spotlight as "Coin of the Day" mid-week with reported 20%+ spikes
Top Crypto Losers from CoinGecko
Merlin Chain (MERL) - after an upgrade and breakout, sellers took profit as the crypto declined 47%
Frax (FRAX) - After surging 61%, the cryptocurrency saw a pull-back of 42% with sellers taking profit.
Wrapper FRAX (WFRAX) - as a wrapped stable, it absorbed DeFi sell-off pressure and volume rose before dipping 42% on broader stablecoin rotations
Stay the Course
We are currently in a Macro-Induced Reset. The institutional floor remains at $80,000, but the path to $100,000 has become a lot more cluttered with political baggage. If the trade war rhetoric cools, expect a V-shaped recovery. If it heats up, we may spend the rest of Q1 testing the resolve of those new ETF investors.
"The market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient."
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This article is for informational purposes only. It should not be considered Financial or Legal Advice. Not all information will be accurate. Consult a financial professional before making any significant financial decisions.
